Probabilistic estimates of injectivity and capacity for large scale CO2 storage in the Gippsland basin, Victoria, Australia

Monte Carlo simulations of injectivity and static capacity explore the range of variation and uncertainty of key parameters (permeability, porosity, reservoir thickness, etc.) in 3 selected areas in the Gippsland Basin, Victoria, Australia. The uncertainty range in specific data is represented by a probability density function. A Tornado plot ranks the parameters of uncertainty impact on the carbon dioxide (CO2) storage potential, which is valuable to inform the work program for appraisal to reduce uncertainty and obtain confidence on the suitability of those areas. The attained P50 (50% likelihood) injection rate into the Golden Beach Subgroup is 0.5 - 3.0 Mt/a. More than 84% of the uncertainty can be attributed to uncertainty in permeability. Injection rates for the Halibut are 1.4 and 0.9 Mt/a for Areas 2 and 3, respectively. The likelihood is high that all areas possess storage capacity in the order of tens of millions of tonnes