Creative destruction and the natural monopoly 'Death Spiral': can electricity distribution utilities survive the incumbent's curse?

The study examines how disruptive technological innovations are likely to impact electricity distribution network utilities and identifies several factors that threaten to inhibit incumbent efforts to adapt and survive. Unlike previous studies of incumbents in competitive markets, this qualitative multi-case study examines 18 electricity distribution network utilities who operate as regulated monopolies. Three important findings emerged from the study: firstly, that disruptive technologies in distributed electricity generation and storage are likely to trigger the creative destruction of existing natural monopolies and render incumbent business models unsustainable. Secondly, the task of adapting to disruptive technologies is made more challenging by the additional requirement to simultaneously transition from a monopolistic to competitive marketplace. Thirdly, incumbents face the risk of inertia and paralysis due to a broad range of rigidities and inhibitors which threaten to undermine their efforts to adapt, survive and avoid succumbing to a death spiral scenario