Submarine Paleo-earthquake record of the Cinarcik segment of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea (Turkey)

The submarine part of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Marmara Sea is a significant hazard for the city of Istanbul (Turkey). The use of paleoseismological data to provide an accurate seismic risk assessment for the area is constrained by the fact that the NAF system is submarine near Istanbul; thus a history of paleoearthquakes can be inferred only by using sediment cores. Here a record of turbidites was obtained in two cores and used to reconstruct the earthquake history along a main branch of the NAF, the Cinarcik Segment. Kullenberg core Klg04 (4 m long) was collected during Marmarascarps mission from a berm north of the fault and a second core (Klg03, 3.5 m long) was positioned in the Cinarcik Basin, 3 km south of the fault. Sedimentary sequences in the two cores were correlated using variations in Ca/Ti ratio, which reflect the local aquatic productivity compared with more terrigenous input. The turbidites between the two cores were then classified to distinguish the synchronous ones from the other ones. Radionuclide measurements suggest that the most recent turbidite recorded in both cores was triggered by the M=7.3 1894 earthquake. We conclude that the turbidites are earthquake-generated, based on: 1) their distinctive sedimentological and geochemical signatures, previously described and applied in the Marmara Sea; 2) the correlation of turbidites between cores at berm and basin sites; 3) the match of the most recent turbidites with a 19th century historical earthquake; and 4) the elimination of others processes. Because of its specific geomorphological location, core Klg04 likely records only mass wasting events related to the rupture on the Cinarcik Segment. To date older turbidites, we used 14C and paleomagnetic data to build an OxCal age model with a local reservoir correction (ΔR) of 400±50 yr. The Cinarcik Segment is found to have ruptured in AD1894, AD1509, sometime in the 14th century, AD989, AD740 and in the 5th century and have a mean recurrence interval of rupture between 243 and 396 years. Following the age model obtained we finally used the earthquake record history of the Cinarcik Segment to infer the rupture history of adjacent segments of the North Anatolian Fault during six earthquake cycles over the past 1500 years