Add to ORKGWhen a boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom is more gradual. Our explanation rests on learning about productivity. When agents believe productivity is high, they work, invest, and produce more. More production generates higher precision information. When the boom ends, precise estimates of the slowdown prompt decisive reactions: Investment and labor fall sharply. When growth resumes, low production yields noisy estimates of recovery. Noise impedes learning, slows recovery, and makes booms more gradual than downturns. A calibrated model generates growth rate asymmetry similar to macroeconomic aggregates. Fluctuations in agents' forecast precision match observed counter cyclical errors of forecas...
Dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity. Boom-bust dynamics appear w...
We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ...
Evidence has recently been put forward to support the hypothesis that recessions tend to be steeper ...
When a boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom is more g...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
Business cycles in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be l...
Business cycles in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be l...
Business cycles in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be l...
Recent cyclical episodes in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions ten...
We investigate the nature of asymmetries in U.S. business cycle dynamics using a dynamic two-factor ...
Informational cascades can be used to augment the existing Austrian business cycle theory. As first-...
Dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity. Boom-bust dynamics appear w...
Dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity. Boom-bust dynamics appear w...
We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ...
Evidence has recently been put forward to support the hypothesis that recessions tend to be steeper ...
When a boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom is more g...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom...
Business cycles in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be l...
Business cycles in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be l...
Business cycles in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be l...
Recent cyclical episodes in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions ten...
We investigate the nature of asymmetries in U.S. business cycle dynamics using a dynamic two-factor ...
Informational cascades can be used to augment the existing Austrian business cycle theory. As first-...
Dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity. Boom-bust dynamics appear w...
Dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity. Boom-bust dynamics appear w...
We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ...
Evidence has recently been put forward to support the hypothesis that recessions tend to be steeper ...