Što determinira izlaznost na izbore za Europski parlament? : analiza utjecaja ekonomskih, političkih i društvenih čimbenika : diplomski rad

Ovaj rad bavi se izlaznošću na izbore za Europski parlament, koji se prema dominantnoj teorijskoj struji shvaćaju kao ''nacionalni izbori drugog reda'', čije posljedice birači vide kao manje neposredne od onih nacionalnih pa je stoga i njihova izlaznost na tim izborima niža. Kako bi se ispitao uzrok te manje izlaznosti, ali i utvrdio utjecaj nacionalnih izbora na europske u radu se postavljaju četiri pitanja i tri hipoteze vezane uz načine grupiranja zemalja prema izlaznosti na nacionalne i europske izbore te političke, ekonomske i društvene čimbenike koji na njih utječu i konačno na poziciju Hrvatske u kontekstu iste. Linearnom je regresijom utvrđeno da izlaznost na nacionalne izbore determinira onu na europske, a multiplom regresijom da na izlaznost na izbore za EP utječu demokratski i ekonomski razvoj te određene sociodemografske karakteristike, ali i indikatori vezani isključivo uz Europsku uniju, što opovrgava postavke ''izbora drugog reda''.This paper deals with the voter turnout in European Parliament elections, which are seen as "second order" to national elections by the main theoretical approaches. The consequences of said elections are regarded as less important and less direct according to the view of voters, which, in turn, leads to a lower turnout. With the aim to explore both the causes for a lower turnout, and the relations between national and European elections, this paper formulates four research questions tested by three hypotheses. The observed countries are classified by voter turnout, while political, economic and social dimensions are explored in order to verify their causal relations with it. Linear regression analysis shows that the national election's voter turnout determines turnout on the European parliament's, while a multiple regression analysis shows that the EP turnout of each country is under the effect of democratic and economic development and certain sociodemographic characteristics, as well as some of the indicators related solely to the European union, which refutes the "second grade elections" approach