The Future of Europe : alternative scenarios

Debate on the future of the European Union (EU) never abates because the EU is a polity characterised by considerable change in its internal and external environment. Scenarios are an important tool in mapping possible futures for the EU, as they bring underlying trends into focus. This chapter offers an alternative perspective to the five scenarios presented by the Commission in 2017 with a focus on disintegration; piecemeal adjustment; and a United States of Europe, which capture the dynamics of contemporary integration. Systemic disintegration is unlikely, but partial disintegration may occur because of the exit of the United Kingdom (UK), challenges to a number of EU regimes and threats to the EU’s normative order from some member states. A United States of Europe is highly unlikely, as the member states are not in favour of transforming the EU into a state-like federation. Piecemeal adjustment is the prevailing strategy adopted by the EU in the context of multiple crises but may not be sufficient for the next phase of integration. Three intervening factors will have a major impact on the future of the EU, the profound changes in the global environment, turbulent politics in the member states and the Franco–German relationship as a source of leadership in the EU