Controlling endemic disease in cattle populations: current challenges and future opportunities

The British cattle population hosts a diverse community of endemic pathogens that impact the sustainability of beef and dairy production. As such, there has been a tremendous amount of ongoing research to develop more cost-effective strategies for controlling disease at the industry level. Cattle movements have come under particular scrutiny over the past decade both because of their role in spreading many economically important diseases and because the movements of individual cattle in Great Britain have been explicitly recorded in a centralized electronic database since 1998. Numerous studies have shown that these cattle movements organize into complex networks with key structural and temporal features that influence transmission dynamics. Building on previous work, this thesis used a variety of epidemiological and statistical models to highlight limitations in the current approaches to controlling disease as well as opportunities for reducing endemic disease prevalence through targeted interventions. Empirical disease data from the national bovine tuberculosis (bTB) control programme and from two seroprevalence studies of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in Scottish cattle herds were used in conjunction with movement data from the Cattle Tracing System (CTS) database. Endemic diseases are often challenging to control due to lack of affordable and accurate diagnostic tests as well as the presence of subclinically infected carriers that can easily escape detection. There was evidence that combined issues with the sensitivity and specificity of routine surveillance methods for bTB were contributing to a low level of disease transmission within and between Scottish cattle herds from 2002 to 2009. For BVDV, herds that purchased pregnant beef dams, beef dams with a calf at foot, and open dairy heifers were significantly more likely to be seropositive even though these movements were responsible for only a small number of network contacts. In both cases, targeting the subset of high risk movements with disease specific biosecurity measures may be a more cost-effective use of limited national disease control resources. Other researchers have suggested that control strategies should target multiple diseases simultaneously to reduce trade-offs in resource allocation. Using key indicators of herd reproductive performance derived from the CTS database, it was shown that improving the reproductive management of herds operating below industry standards could reduce endemic disease prevalence by reducing the movements of replacement breeding cattle. A series of network generation algorithms were also developed to study the effects of restricting contact formation based on key demographic and network characteristics of actively trading cattle farms. Strategies that increased network fragmentation either by forcing highly connected farms to form contacts with other highly connected farms or preventing the formation of movements with a high predicted betweenness centrality were found to be particularly effective in limiting disease transmission. For these models to be useful in guiding future policy decisions, it is important to incorporate financial and behavioural drivers of dynamic network change. Following the introduction of pre- and post-movement testing requirements for cattle imported into Scotland from endemic bTB regions, there was a significant decline in cross-border movements, which has likely contributed to the decreasing risk of bTB outbreaks as much as testing itself. Many endemic cattle diseases such as BVDV also spread through local transmission mechanisms, which may undermine the success of disease control programmes that exclusively target cattle movements. There was also evidence that in the absence of national animal legislation, few farmers were likely to adopt biosecurity measures against BVDV. This may be related to the perceived inefficacy of recommendations as well as general unawareness of farm disease status due to the non-specific clinical signs of BVDV outbreaks. Although the CTS database was originally intended for use in slaughter traceback investigations, results from this thesis show how the basic records of births, deaths, and movements can be used to generate valuable insights into the epidemiology of endemic cattle diseases. The findings also emphasize that the management decisions of individual herds can have a substantial impact on industry level transmission dynamics, which offers unique opportunities to develop novel and more cost-effective disease control programmes