Mapping the economic potential of wave energy: grid connected and off-grid systems

In recent times there has been a surge in renewable energy investment, as costs fall and the full danger of global warming is realised by policymakers. As well as more established industries, like wind and solar power, there is also high interest in pre-commercial technologies with significant potential. Wave energy fits into this category and has a number of advantages that make it a subject of ongoing research and industrial activity. An energy dense resource, it is easier to forecast than wind and fits the seasonal demand profile well. A global capacity of the order of hundreds of gigawatts has been estimated, with a particularly strong resource in the UK. Despite these characteristics the industry has yet to reach a commercial level. No company has been able to demonstrate consistent energy production at a cost effective rate. Viable project locations must balance an energetic resource with conditions that allow devices to be accessed for maintenance, while also trying to minimise system costs. While utility scale farms are seen as the long term future for the technology, off-grid hybrid systems could supply cheaper and dispatchable energy at local levels. This market, while smaller, is made up of more costly forms of energy so provides a better entry market. Conventional economic analyses for both types of systems tend to be performed for single locations at a time. While useful for benchmarking the technology, these methods are of limited use for site scoping as energy production and costs can show large variation over relatively short distances (