Herbivore dynamics in an arid environment

This study investigated the effects of a seasonally variable forage resource on herbivore population dynamics. This involved estimating the relative importance of environmental conditions, and the accessible and used forage resources, at different stages of the seasonal cycle to herbivores in different life-stages and at different points in the reproductive cycle. This study was carried out in the Richtersveld region in South Africa, using goats kept by semi-nomadic Nama pastoralists. In the main study site, the Richtersveld National Park (RNP), herd movements follow a general seasonal migratory pattern: herds are based in the riparian zone of the Orange River during the dry season, and on plains away from the river in the wet season. Over 800 uniquely marked female goats in three life-stages (adults, yearlings and kids) were monitored over a three year period (2007 to 2009). These goats were weighed at 2 - 3 month intervals to provide an estimate of body condition. Browse availability in the riparian zone was estimated using measurements at an individual branch-level and a whole tree-level. FPAR satellite imagery was used to estimate forage abundance outside the riparian zone. Goat density was mapped for each week of the study using census data and the herd positions. Goat body condition, survival rates and fecundity rates for each life-stage were modelled as a response to forage availability, density and climatic conditions. The riparian zone in the RNP was found to function as the key resource of the RNP goat population. Forage depletion by goat browsing resulted in a negative feedback on goat body condition. This decline in body condition was directly related to lower adult survival over the dry season. Fecundity was also most influenced by dry season conditions through the negative effect of poor body condition on pregnancy rates and birth rates. Asymmetric competition between life-stages, resulting from the riparian browse profile being depleted from the bottom-up, was predicted to have a strong effect on goat demography by contributing to differences in body condition and survival rates between life-stages. Wet season conditions appeared to have little effect on goat population dynamics, either through increased neonate survival or through a mass carry-over effect influencing dry season survival. Goat body condition and vital rates were compared between the RNP and the neighbouring Kuboes rangeland, which does not have access to the Orange River, to assess the impact of differences in their dry season forage resource. The long-term size and variability of the livestock population in the RNP was also compared with livestock dynamics in Paulshoek, a rangeland 250 km south east of the RNP. The a priori predictions of relative population dynamics in each region, based on perceived differences in the nature of the key resource in each region, were largely supported