Prognostic factors five years after enucleation for uveal melanoma

PURPOSE. A subgroup of uveal melanoma (UM) gives rise to metastases at a late stage. Our objective was to identify patient and tumor characteristics that are associated with UM-related death in patients who survived 5 years following enucleation.METHODS. A retrospective analysis was performed in 583 primary UM cases, enucleated at the Leiden University Medical Center between 1983 and 2013. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed in the total cohort and separately in those surviving more than 5 years (n = 297).RESULTS. In the total cohort, the median age was 62.6 years, and the median tumor diameter was 12.0 mm. Monosomy 3 was detected in 53% of cases and gain of 8q in 47%. In the cohort surviving 5 years, the median age was 59.5 years, and the median tumor diameter was 11.0 mm. Monosomy 3 and gain of 8q were detected in 33% and 31% of cases, respectively. In the total cohort, male gender (P = 0.03), tumor diameter (P < 0.001), mitotic count (P < 0.001), extravascular matrix loops (P = 0.03), extraocular growth (P < 0.001), and gain of 8q (P < 0.001) were independently associated with UM-related death. In patients surviving 5 years after enucleation, univariable analysis revealed that age (P = 0.03), tumor diameter (P < 0.001), monosomy 3 (P = 0.04), and 8q gain (P = 0.003) were associated with subsequent UM-related death. Using a multivariable analysis, only male gender (P = 0.03) and gain of 8q (P = 0.01) remained significant.CONCLUSIONS. Predictors of UM-related death change over time. Among UM patients who survived the initial 5 years following enucleation, male gender and chromosome 8q status were the remaining factors related to UM-related death later on.Development and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc