The End of Deference: Iran, Brazil and Turkey and the Nuclear Fuel Swap

On 17 May 2010 Brazil, Iran and Turkey signed a tri-partite Joint Declaration asserting that a nuclear fuel exchange could lead to wider cooperation to exploit nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The US has regarded Iran’s nuclear programme with suspicion since the 1980s, when senior figures in the Iranian establishment mentioned possible nuclear weapon ambitions. Other members of the international community became alarmed in 2002, when the Iranian representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) described a more ambitious nuclear programme than previously revealed, and one with some disturbing features. Iran and outside interlocutors, principally member states of the EU, have subsequently tried to remove concerns that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon. This diplomatic effort has failed, and each side is now fully convinced that the other is duplicitous and acting in bad faith. This ARI looks at the implications of the nuclear fuel swap agreed on 17 May 2010 between Brazil, Iran and Turkey in the context of Iran’s nuclear programme as well as the reasons and expectations of the Brazilian and Turkish emerging powers with regard to their deal with the Iranian proliferator power