Has COVID-19 Caused a Great Trade Collapse? An Initial Ex Post Assessment

We conduct an initial ex-post assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on international trade. Descriptive analysis of observed trade flows suggests that agricultural trade was generally stable under the pandemic relative to non-agricultural trade and previous trade shocks; however, the level of observed changes was highly uneven across commodities and markets. Preliminary econometric analysis finds the pandemic reduced quarterly global agricultural trade by 4.2% in the second and third quarters of 2020. Findings of this study provide initial empirical evidence of the effects of the pandemic on agricultural trade and points to areas of future empirical research