Two-Hour Post-Load Plasma Glucose, a Biomarker to Improve the GRACE Score in Patients without Known Diabetes

© 2020 S. Karger AG, Basel. All rights reserved. Objective: To assess improvement in predictive performance of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score (GRS) by addition of a glucose matrix. Methods: 1,056 acute coronary syndrome (ACS) survivors without known diabetes had pre-discharge fasting (FPG) and 2-h post-load plasma glucose (2h-PG) measured. GRS was calculated. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE; death and non-fatal myocardial infarction) were recorded during follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression predicted event-free survival. Likelihood ratio test, Akaike's information criteria, continuous net reclassification index (NRI 0), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to test the additional prognostic value of glycaemic indices over GRS. Results: During a median follow-up of 36.5 months, 211 MACEs (20.0%), 96 deaths (9.1%), and 115 non-fatal re-infarctions (10.9%), occurred. 2h-PG, but not FPG, independently predicted MACE-free survival at all time points (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.13, p = 0.002, at 3 years). Risk of MACE increased by 8-11% with every 1 mmol/L rise in 2h-PG. 2h-PG significantly improved the prognostic models containing GRS. Models containing GRS and 2h-PG yielded lowest corrected Akaike's information criteria compared to that with only GRS. 2h-PG, but not FPG, improved NRI0 (NRI0 0.169, p = 0.028 at 3 years) and IDI (IDI of 0.66%, p = 0.018 at 3 years) significantly at all time points during the follow-up. Conclusions: 2h-PG, but not FPG, improves performance of GRS-containing models in predicting post-ACS prognosis in the short to medium term