Identifying hotspots of overgrazing in pastoral areas: Livestock mobility and fodder supply–demand balances in Nyangatom, Lower Omo Valley, Ethiopia

The Nyangatom, in South Omo, Ethiopia, are a group of agro-pastoralists whose access to land is affected by large-scale sugarcane development projects. An informed selection of appropriate livestock management measures by local communities requires a spatially explicit representation of prevailing and changing supply–demand relationships for livestock herds among the Nyangatom. This study addresses this caveat and identifies seasonal and location-specific ‘hotspots’ in Nyangatom, where fodder demand exceeds supply. Assessments of fodder production are based on primary data collected through focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations. Overall, annual fodder availability is estimated at 508,967 tonnes against the requirement of 584,205 tons, resulting in a deficit of 12.9% annually after out-migration. Under the implementation of the Omo-V sugarcane project and climate change, the fodder supply deficit will worsen to 219,977 tonnes annually. The most critical dry matter hotspots are found in the western and central parts of Nyangatom near the Kibish River, which shows the highest livestock density. In contrast, better fodder supply is estimated around the southwestern and northeastern parts. Change in policy, the frequency of droughts, conflict, and the large-scale irrigation schemes-induced reduction of the Omo River floods are accounted for the changes. Thus, there are strong signals to the local community and government to collaborate to reduce the potential constraints that affect sustainable rangeland management and food security and ensure sufficient attention to the interest of the agro-pastoralists