Solar proton fluences as observed during 1966-1972 and as predicted for 1977-1983 space missions

The probability with which any given proton fluence level will be exceeded during a space mission is computed for missions to be flown during the active phase of the next solar cycle (1977-1983). This probability is a function of fluence level, proton energy threshold, and mission duration. Data on the major solar proton events of 1966-1972 are given; it is argued that only this data set (and not that of the previous solar cycle) is appropriate for estimating next-cycle fluences. Probable numbers of each of the two types of events are estimated from Burrell's extension of Poisson statistics. Fluences of all future anomalously large events are assumed to have a common spectrum, that given by the August 1972 event. Fluences of the ordinary events are assumed to obey a log normal distribution. It is shown that for much of the confidence-level mission-duration regime of interest, at least one anomalously large event will occur; and given such an occurrence, the ordinary-event contribution to mission fluence is negligible