Development of a model to predict vestibular schwannoma growth: An opportunity to introduce new wait and scan strategies

OBJECTIVES: To develop a prediction model to predict vestibular schwannoma (VS) growth for patients in a wait and scan (W&S) strategy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary hospital (Radboud university medical center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands). PARTICIPANTS: Patients with unilateral VS, entering a W&S strategy and at least one follow-up MRI available. Data on demographics, symptoms, audiometry and MRI characteristics at time of diagnosis were collected from medical records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Following multiple imputation, a multivariable Cox regression model was used to select variables, using VS growth (>/=2 mm) as outcome. Decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed to compare the model to the current strategy. RESULTS: Of 1217 analysed VS patients, 653 (53.7%) showed growth during follow-up. Balance complaints (HR 1.57 (95% CI: 1.31-1.88)) and tinnitus complaints in the affected ear (HR 1.36 (95% CI: 1.15-1.61)), Koos grade (Koos 1 is reference, Koos 2 HR 1.03 (95% CI: 0.80-1.31), Koos 3 HR 1.55 (95% CI: 1.16-2.06), Koos 4 HR 2.18 (95% CI: 1.60-2.96)), time since onset of symptoms (IQR HR 0.83 (95% CI: 0.77-0.88) and intrameatal diameter on MRI (IQR HR 1.67 (95% CI: 1.42-1.96)) were selected as significant predictors. The model's discrimination (Harrell's C) was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.67-0.71), and calibration was good. DCA showed that the model has a higher net benefit than the current strategy for probabilities of VS growth of >12%, 15% and 21% for the first consecutive 3 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with balance and tinnitus complaints, a higher Koos grade, short duration of symptoms and a larger intrameatal diameter at time of diagnosis have a higher probability of future VS growth. After external validation, this model may be used to inform patients about their prognosis, individualise the W&S strategy and improve (cost-)effectiveness