Urban transport market determinants in Kenya : analysis of modal choice and fare competition

Transport markets in most low-income countries are still not fully developed to embracefree-market economy with effective competitive mechanism to help regulate it. Aliberalized transport market is a novel idea though, but for fully developed economies;its applicability in socially deprived environments has ended up degrading mobilitysituations by making transport costs too expensive for the majority. Understandingtravel desires of consumers (trip makers) as a basis for mobility planning is the only wayof meaningfully redressing the transport crisis in most developing cities.Public transport situation in Kenyan urban centres is generally road-based and has overthe years experienced inter-modal competition often characterized with chaotic sceneson the streets; the long-term effects are by and large, perceived less positively. This studysought to quantify the benefits of such competition with respect to fare price for the cityof Kisumu as a case study. Modal choice analysis was conducted in an attempt tocomprehensively understand key drivers of the transport market in Kenya in terms oftraveller preferences.Public transport user surveys together with a household travel survey (only in Kisumu)provided data on the prevailing fare levels and on the traveller attitudes about thepresent system performance. Revealed (RP) and stated preference (SP) data gatheringtechniques were utilised in these surveys to collect data on explanatory variables asinput for modal choice analysis. Multinomial (MNL) logit modelling through in-builtmaximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique assisted in estimating models based onselected explanatory variables. The estimated models showed that fare as a variable haslittle influence on a trip maker's modal choice; household income, access/egress timesand fear of accident however, do affect mode choice by a large measure. Further,drawing from fare analysis, inter-modal competition is minimal and cannot be reliedupon to effectively regulate fares in the market.Analyses of fare in the four towns studied consequently showed that affordability is themain determinant of fare levels in Kenyan towns. Fares do not reflect the cost ofproviding the service since travellers are only willing to accept and pay low fares.Overall, accessibility (spatial and financial) remains the key mobility problem in the cityof Kisumu. The study proposed fare subsidy and smart growth policies as two mostviable strategies to help foster social and economic sustainability in the Kenyan urbantransport market