New methodology for assessing the probability of contaminating Mars

Methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will be contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. The present NASA methods are extended to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Different types of microbial release are distinguished, and for each release mechanism a probability of growth is computed. Using this new methodology, an assessment was carried out for the 1975 Viking landings on Mars. The resulting probability of contamination for each Viking lander is 6 x 10 to the -6 power, and is amenable to revision as additional information becomes available