China’s industrial carbon emissions : historical drivers at the regional and sectoral levels and projections in light of policy targets

This thesis studied in depth the energy use and CO2 emissions of the industrial sector in China. As discussed in chapter 1, being responsible for about 84% of the Chinese CO2 emissions in 2015, the industrial sector plays a vital role in achieving the emission goals for China. The regional and sectoral heterogeneities have been considered since the industrial sector is distributed in different regions and consists of different sub-sectors. Chapter 2 studied the regional heterogeneity in industrial carbon intensity and its drivers in specific years of 1999. 2005, 2010 and 2015. Chapter 3 investigated the driving forces of industrial aggregate energy intensity (IAEI) and the contribution of each industrial sub-sector to the changes in IAEI. Chapter 4 studied to what extent performance convergence of energy-intensive industries across provinces can contribute to CO2 emission reductions and China’s emission goals. Chapter 5 provided a critical literature review on the historical drivers of industrial CO2 emissions and the projected ranges for future emissions against the backdrop of policy goals, both for the industrial sector as a whole, and for the major industrial sub-sectors (electricity generation, cement production, steel production, chemicals, petroleum and non-ferrous metals).