Demand for large freighter aircraft as projected by the NASA cargo/logistics airlift system studies

The market conditions are examined up through the year 2008 to provide a preliminary assessment of the potential for and the characteristics of an advanced, all-cargo transport aircraft. Any new freighter must compete with current wide-body aircraft and their derivatives. Aircraft larger than the wide-bodies may incur economic penalties and operational problems. A lower direct operating cost is not a sufficient criterion to base a decision for the initiation of a new aircraft development or to select aircraft characteristics. Other factors of equal importance that are reviewed in this paper include considerations of the system infrastructure, the economics of the airlines, and the aircraft manufacturer return on investment. The results of the market forecast and a computer simulation show that an advanced long range aircraft with a payload between 68 to 181 tonnes (75 to 200 tons) could generate a solid foothold beginning around 1994