Limits of Co-mediation: The EU’s Effectiveness in the Geneva International Discussions. College of Europe EU Diplomacy Paper 3/2020.

On 12 August 2008, on behalf of the Council Presidency of the European Union (EU), French President Nicolas Sarkozy negotiated the Protocole d’Accord underpinning the establishment of the Geneva International Discussions (GID). The GID constitutes an international mediation format, co-chaired by the EU, the United Nations (UN) and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The GID has often been criticized for lacking tangible outcomes. Besides, very little is known about the contribution of the EU as a mediating actor, especially with regard to effectiveness. To address this research gap, this paper explores the EU mediation efforts in the GID. First, it evaluates EU mediator effectiveness through the analytical framework developed by Julian Bergmann and Arne Niemann. Second, it studies the conditions for EU mediator effectiveness. The analytical framework of Bergmann and Niemann proposes four key variables: (i) mediator leverage, (ii) mediation strategy, (iii) coherence, and (iv) conflict context. To this, the paper adds (v) mediator co-ordination since the institutional set-up of the GID includes two other co-chairs (i.e. co-mediation). The study finds that EU mediator effectiveness varies from medium to low, depending on the type of conflict issues (major/minor) addressed at the negotiation table. Although the GID did not succeed in reaching agreements on major conflict issues, such as the creation of International Security Arrangements and an agreement on the return of Internally Displaced Persons, it paved the way to cooperation on minor conflict issues like cultural heritage, humanitarian problems and environmental threats