Alterations in Crime and the Ferguson Effect: An Analysis of Crime Trends in the St. Louis, MO Metropolitan Area

The Ferguson Effect, which has resulted in de-policing or disengaging from proactive community policing in response to increased violence against police since 2014 and fear of civil liability, has led to increases in crime and attacks on law enforcement officers. Previous research focused on exploring law enforcement officers’ perceptions of media and public scrutiny, crime rates, self-legitimacy, and willingness to engage in community relations. No studies identified have attempted to predict the source of the Ferguson Effect and its effect on crime. Moreover, no studies have conducted a time-series analysis of crime and de-policing focusing solely on the St. Louis, MO metropolitan area. To better understand the phenomenon, Bandura’s model of reciprocal determinism was applied. Data were analyzed from open-source publications made available by the Missouri State Highway Patrol, Missouri Attorney General’s Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and American Community Survey, The research intent was to evaluate the relationship between crime and de-policing through the replication and expansion of a previous study and the use of descriptive and inferential statistical analyses. Findings suggested that sources of increases in crime rates extend beyond de-policing and are likely the result of organizational factors. This study was important for positive social change because it offered insights into the effects of policing on crime. Moreover, the findings of this study and future inquiries may be used to evaluate current and future policies and their impact on both organizations and society