Evolutionary implications of a steady-state water abundance on Venus

In 1987, Grinspoon proposed that the data on hydrogen abundance, isotopic composition, and escape rate were consistent with the hypothesis that water on Venus might be in steady-state rather than monotonic decline since the dawn of time. This conclusion was partially based on a derived water lifetime against nonthermal escape of approximately 10(exp 8) years. Others have questioned this conclusion. De Bergh et al. found H2O lifetimes of greater than 10(exp 9) years. Donahue and Hodges derived H2O lifetimes of 0.4 - 5 x 10(exp 9) years. The most sophisticated analysis to date of near-IR radiation from Venus' nightside reveals a water mixing ratio of approximately 30 ppm. Recent re-analysis of Pioneer Venus Mass Spectrometer Data are consistent with a water abundance of 30 ppm. Hodges and Tinsley found an escape flux due to charge exchange with hot H(+) of 2.8 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1). Gurwell and Yung estimated an escape flux of 3.5 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1) from collisions with hot O produced by dissociative recombination of O2(+). Brace et al. estimated an escape flux of 5 x 10(exp 6) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1) from ion escape from the ionotail of Venus. The combined estimated escape flux from all of these processes is 3.7 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1), suggesting a lifetime against escape for water of less than 10(exp 8) years. A recent estimate of H escape flux employing a different ionospheric model and using Pioneer Venus reentry data to estimate the response of the escape flux to the solar cycle finds a somewhat lower escape flux of 1.4 x 10(exp 7) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1), suggesting a water lifetime closer to 2 x 10(exp 8) years, significantly less than the age of the planet. Large uncertainties remain in these quantities, yet the data suggest that a source of water more recent than primordial sources is required and that a steady-state is likely. To obvious candidates for this source water are cometary impact and volcanic outgassing. Other aspects of this investigation are discussed