Prediction of contralateral breast cancer: external validation of risk calculators in 20 international cohorts
- Giardiello, D
- Hauptmann, M
- Steyerberg, EW
- Adank, MA
- Akdeniz, D
- Blom, JC
- Blomqvist, C
- Bojesen, SE
- Bolla, MK
- Brinkhuis, M
- Chang-Claude, J
- Czene, K
- Devilee, P
- Dunning, AM
- Easton, DF
- Eccles, DM
- Fasching, PA
- Figueroa, J
- Flyger, H
- Garcia-Closas, M
- Haeberle, L
- Haiman, CA
- Hall, P
- Hamann, U
- Hopper, JL
- Jager, A
- Jakubowska, A
- Jung, A
- Keeman, R
- Koppert, LB
- Kramer, I
- Lambrechts, D
- Le Marchand, L
- Lindblom, A
- Lubinski, J
- Manoochehri, M
- Mariani, L
- Nevanlinna, H
- Oldenburg, HSA
- Pelders, S
- Pharoah, PDP
- Shah, M
- Siesling, S
- Smit, VTHBM
- Southey, MC
- Tapper, WJ
- Tollenaar, RAEM
- van den Broek, AJ
- van Deurzen, CHM
- van Leeuwen, FE
- van Ongeval, C
- Van't Veer, LJ
- Wang, Q
- Wendt, C
- Westenend, PJ
- Hooning, MJ
- Schmidt, MK
DOIAbstract
BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for...