Demographics and Industry Returns in the EU15

Do investors respond rationally to predictable shifts in demographics induced demand? I study how predictable shifts in demographics and the resulting demographic demand predict profits and returns across industries. I find and demonstrate clear and persistent age-specific expenditure patterns in many categories, such as bicycles, liquor, and nursing and housekeeping services. To find the estimate of total demographic demand, I create forecasts for short-term and long-term cohort size fluctuations and combine them with the consumption data. Contrary to previous research, I find no connection between increases in demographic demand and profitability or excess returns. The results are consistent with the assumption of a rational investor and efficient markets. I also present possible explanations for the conflicting results related to differences in demographics, demand, and information