Cognitive and Action Sequence Prediction using Deductive Reasoning

Early in the process of the development of an aircraft cockpit, although the designers always introduce a set of operational procedures with the expectation that all pilots would follow, it is very difficult to guarantee that the flight crew will do exactly they are expected to do. The deviation of the pilots’ operation from the intended procedures may lead to an unsafe situation, and could also be an indication to the inherent reason for the biases in the pilots’ cognitive process. It became very obvious that a tool that could help to predict a comprehensive set of possible operations that the pilots would operate the aircraft will be very useful both in the flight deck design process and pilot training practices. This paper presents the development of the researches in the “Cognitive and Action Sequence Prediction using Deductive Creation Theory (CASEPREDICT)”. Unlike any human-made system which the response of the system can be predicted to certain degree of accuracy, a human-in-theloop system is always associated with a great deal of uncertainty issues which comes from the cognitive process of human operators