Winds of change in Belarus: implications for the EU. College of Europe Policy Paper September 2020.

The crisis in Belarus arising from the contested August 2020 presidential election is unprecedented: primarily internal, it has important repercussions for the region and the European Union. Within the European Union, the crisis has altered the dynamics of the traditional division of labour. Despite a new leadership promise by Belarus’ neighbour Lithuania, the Union should generally focus more on speaking with one voice in this crisis. From the regional perspective of the Eastern Partnership (EaP), the crisis has highlighted that the EU has to rethink its approach to the country, revitalize the multilateral dimension of the Partnership and further strengthen its cooperation with key cooperation partners, notably Ukraine. From the general viewpoint of regional stability, the Belarus crisis could substantially alter security in Central Europe and cause its further militarisation. There is still a window of opportunity, however, that a national dialogue in Belarus could maintain the security-related status quo and possibly also re-dynamise EU-Russia cooperation in their ‘shared neighbourhood’. To ultimately deal with the consequences of the 2020 elections, the EU needs to rethink its policies by enhancing humanitarian aid, retargeting political dialogue towards civil society, imposing targeted sanctions regarding Belarus and reinforcing its energy diplomacy vis-à-vis Russia