Examining Tornadic Thunderstorms Through GOES-16 1-Minute Resolution Imagery

Since the first GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series) satellite became operational in 2017, scientists and forecasters have had access to an unprecedented volume of real-time weather data, including 1-minute high resolution satellite imagery across 16 bands. Numerous studies detailing its usefulness, particularly in regards to severe weather forecasting, have been published in the years since its launch. The goal of this study is to analyze the relationship between storm characteristics as seen from satellite and a tornado's strength. Using six tornadic events, including three tornadoes from the April 12, 2020 tornado outbreak across southern Mississippi, as case studies, this project aims to build off of prior research by demonstrating the breadth of information that can be gleaned from the GOES-16 dataset. Specifically, features such as overshooting top width and cloud-top temperature associated with tornadic storms that formed are identified and analyzed. These variables are then compared to data on estimated tornado strength obtained from National Weather Service (NWS) storm surveys to attempt to define a linear relationship which could be used to predict tornadic intensity. Analysis of cloud-top temperatures (CTs) of the three tornadic storms on April 12, 2020 showed significant drops either immediately preceding or following tornadogenesis with CTs of 197 K or lower for both EF-4 storms and near 199 K for the EF-3 storm. Similarly, there was a noticeable negative correlation between overshooting top width and CT temperature with increases in OT width immediately following the strengthening of the Bassfield EF-4 tornado. This analysis demonstrates that high resolution data from GOES-16 have the potential to greatly improve nowcasting during severe weather events.National Science Foundation (AGS-1757892)No embargoAcademic Major: Atmospheric Science