First-order uncertainty analysis using AD 2D application

This paper presents an efficient method to quantify uncertainty in morphodynamic models. The FOSM/AD method is applied to a complex 2D test case; the long terms morphodynamic evolution of a tidal inlet. The sensitivity to grain size and bed roughness has been quantified as well as various model parameters including slope effect and secondary currents using the tangent linear model (TLM) of the Sisyphe/Telemac2D model for the 7.0 release