PS39 Alcohol and Harm to Others in Russia: Longitudinal Analysis of Couple Drinking and Subsequent Divorce

Background In Russia male drinking patterns have serious negative health effects; however the impact of alcohol on divorce is relatively unexplored. In other settings heavy drinking and discrepant drinking within couples increases the probability of marital breakdown. Longitudinal data, rather than cross-sectional, is preferable to establish the direction of any causal link.Methods The association between married couple drinking patterns and subsequent divorce was investigated in a national population-based panel study in Russia. Follow-up data on 4,266 married couples was extracted from 14 consecutive annual rounds (1994–2009) of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. The overall follow-up rate of couples was 90%, and loss to follow-up was unrelated to drinking behaviour. At interview couples provided information about family relationships, drinking habits in the last 30 days and socio-demographic variables. Discrete time hazard models were fitted using pooled logistic regression to estimate the probability of divorce among married couples as a function of the previous round’s drinking patterns and other covariates.Results Increased odds of divorce were associated with greater frequency of husband drinking (P<0.001) and greater frequency of wife drinking (P