Outlook and appraisal [November 1985]

The Scottish economy, like that of the UK as a whole, looks set to experience a substantial shift in the relative importance of the factors determining growth in the coming year. As discussed elsewhere in the Commentary (see British Economy), growth in the recent past has been driven mainly by the expansion of investment and exports. With the interrelated factors of sterling's strength and continuing high real UK interest rates operating against a background of some deceleration in the growth of world trade, the prospect is that these influences will be largely replaced by the re-emergence of consumers' expenditure as the principal determinant of growth