Modelling regional lottery sales : methodological issues and a case study from Spain

Sales are modelled for 50 Spanish provinces over 522 draws of a high prize lotto game.Acrossed random effects model allows for random shocks specific to particular draws and to particular provinces. The paper explores how demographic and socio-economic factors influence sales volumes, with particular focus on the relationship between sales and real per capita income at different jackpot sizes. When jackpots are low, sales are shown to rise with the level of provincial incomes. But this relationship disappears or is reversed when rollovers raise the jackpot because sales in poorer provinces are markedly more responsive to jackpot siz