Increasing longevity and family dynamics in Latin America

The world is ageing both at an individual and population level (Lee 2003; Leeson 2009) – and population ageing, which was once regarded as an issue for the developed economies of Europe and North America is truly a global phenomenon now reaching Latin America (Leeson 2011), the only notable region of exception being sub-Saharan Africa, which remains relatively young in demographic terms (United Nations 2013). At an individual level, life expectancies at birth have increased at the global level from 47 years in the mid-20th century to around 70 years today, and are expected to rise to 76 years by the mid-21st century and to 82 years by the end of the century. At the population level, the proportion of the world’s population aged 60 years and over has increased from 8 per cent in the mid-20th century to 11 per cent, and by 2050, it is expected to reach 21 per cent, equating to more than 2 billion people. The end of the century will see almost 30 per cent and 3 billion of the world’s population aged 60 years and over (United Nations 2013). As Europe and North America aged through the 20th century, the next wave sees the populations of much of Asia ageing in the first decades of the 21st century on an unprecedented scale, driven primarily by rapidly declining fertility. Fertility in Korea, for example, has declined in the course of just one generation from almost 3 in 1975-80 to 1.3 in 2010-15 (United Nations 2013). This presents huge challenges to individuals, families, and society as a whole, not least because many of these societies are highly family-based in respect of support for older people. Quite simply, that family is shrinking dramatically and the role of the family is changing likewise (Harper 2004; Leeson and Harper 2006, 2007, 2007a, 2007b, 2008). As mentioned, Latin America and the Caribbean, with their own history, culture and traditions, now stand on the brink of their own ageing challenge, and countries are variously prepared or unprepared to take on the challenge (Brea 2003). As well as ageing, the populations of the region have grown and urbanised. Life expectancies increased quite dramatically during the first half of the 20th century and then more modestly in the latter half of that century as increases materialised as a result of improvements in survival at older ages (Fries 1980; Leeson 1981, 1982, 2014; Vaupel 1998). There is also a body of evidence indicating that lives will continue to be extended (Bongaarts 2006; Thatcher 1999, 2001; Olshanky et al 2001; Robine, Saito and Jagger 2003; Wilmoth and Robine 2003; Christensen et al 2009; Vaupel 2010; Leeson 2011, 2014). This chapter considers population ageing across Latin America and the Caribbean region for the period 1950-2050, and then utilises data from Oxford’s Global Ageing Survey (GLAS) to illustrate attitudes to family and family support in Brazil and Mexico. Finally, prospects for increasing longevity are brought into this equation and the impacts on family dynamics are discussed