Predicting the Effects of DDoS Attacks on a Network of Critical Infrastructures

Over the last decade, the level of critical infrastructure technology has been steadily transforming in order to keep pace with the growing demand for the services offered. The implementation of the smart grid, which relies on a complex and intelligent level of interconnectivity, is one example of how vital amenity provision is being refined. However, with this change, the risk of threats from the digital domain must be calculated. Superior interconnectivity between infrastructures means that the future cascading impacts of successful cyber-attacks are unknown. One such threat being faced in the digital domain is the Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. A DDoS has the goal of incapacitating a server, network or service, by barraging a target with external data traffic in the form of communication requests. DDoS have the potential to cause a critical infrastructure outage, and the subsequent impact on a network of such infrastructures is yet unknown. In this paper, an approach for assessing the future impacts of a cyber-attack in a network of critical infrastructures is presented; with a focus on DDoS attacks. A simulation of a critical infrastructure network provides data to represent both normal run-time and an attack scenario. Using this dataset, a technique for assessing the future impact of disruptions on integrated critical infrastructure network, is demonstrated. Index Terms—Critical Infrastructure, Cyber-Attack Distributed Denial of Service, Simulation, Cascading Failur