Improving Current Glycated Hemoglobin Prediction in Adults: Use of Machine Learning Algorithms with Electronic Health Records

Background: Predicting the risk of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) elevation can help identify patients with the potential for developing serious chronic health problems such as diabetes. Early preventive interventions based upon advanced predictive models using electronic health records (EHR) data for identifying such patients can ultimately help provide better health outcomes. Objective: Our study investigates the performance of predictive models to forecast HbA1c elevation levels by employing several machine learning models. We also investigate utilizing the patient's EHR longitudinal data in the performance of the predictive models. Explainable methods have been employed to interpret the decisions made by the blackbox models. Methods: This study employed Multiple Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression models, as well as a deep learning model (Multi-layer perceptron) to classify patients with normal (