Shocks from the system : remodelling exchange rate regime choice in Latin America and the Caribbean 1960-1995

I propose and test a new model determining the choice of the exchange rate regime in Latin America and the Caribbean. The key insight is that systemic level instability plays an important role in choosing the exchange rate regime. Using new data from Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), a second insight is that countries do not always follow the type of exchange rate regime they claim. Testing the determinants of regime choice against both the traditional, official de jure and new, market de facto data, I find that policymakers are strategically using the observed gap between the measures. The evidence reveals that systemic level variables, namely instability in the US interest rate and the bilateral USD:DEM/Euro exchange rate, significantly impact the choice of the exchange rate regime