Simulating input biotechnology adoption using a system dynamics approach

A system dynamics model is developed to study the technology adoption process (TAP) of modern agriculture input technology such as the biotechnologies. The work shows that the system dynamics approach is appropriate to integrate the different components considered in the TAP conceptual framework elaborated in this work. The conceptual framework illustrates the different system components found important in the literature, portfolio decision-making, learning, information gathering, uncertainties and economics perceptions and their involved relationships.The model is first calibrated and validated using the case of soybeans adoption versus corn uses in Quebec from 1987 to 1998. Validation is performed through five tests, namely visual, statistical and sensitivity, modularity and extendibility are performed to show the relevancy of the approach.The model is then applied to the case of four input biotechnology crops. Again three types of validation tests are carried out. Results show that the model predicted the shape of the curve for all application fields