Domestic instability, government popularity and the causes of international conflict : a new look at diversion theory

One of the most perplexing issues for students of politics is the proper role of externalization in accounting for interstate conflict. This process, which connects events at the domestic and international levels, also has been referred to as conflict linkage, conflict and cohesion, diversion and projection. The diverse terminology is fitting, because the pursuit by national elites of internal cohesion through external conflict is anything but a matter of consensus among scholars.The present investigation will seek a more precise delineation of causes and effects. Following a review of the research program on conflict linkage, a reformulated model of externalization will be presented. Propositions will be derived from the model. Data pertaining to the experiences of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France at the domestic level and in international crises during the post-World War II era will be used to evaluate the propositions. These results will be in turn compared to the more traditional explanation on the causes of international conflict; namely, theories derived from the Realist perspective. The study then concludes with some recommendations for further research on the linkage of domestic and foreign conflict