Sensitivity of permafrost terrain in a high Arctic polar desert : an evaluation of response to disturbance near Eureka, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut

A first approximation of ground ice volume for the area surrounding Eureka, Nunavut, indicates that it comprises 30.8% of the upper 5.9 m of permafrost. Volume depends on the type of ice examined, ranging from 1.8 to 69.0% in different regions of the study area. Excess ice makes up 17.7% of the total volume of frozen materials in the study area. Melt of ground ice in the past has produced thermokarst features which include ground subsidence of up to 3.2 m, formation of tundra ponds, degradation of ice wedges, thaw slumps greater than 50 m across, gullying, and numerous active layer detachment slides. With a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the rise in mean annual temperatures for the area is projected to be 4.9 to 6.6°C, which would lengthen the thaw season and increase thaw depths by up to 70 cm. The expected geomorphic changes to the landscape are discussed