Subnational politics and regime change in Mexico

What happens to subnational states when the parent federation undergoes a regime change process? This is a crucial question in understanding political processes in federal countries. The visible political differentiation amongst subnational states belonging to the same federation underscores the fact that some processes are at work that are being ignored by the literature's current focus on national developments. To fill this lacuna, I develop an analytical model that seeks to explain regional differentiation during federal regime change by focusing directly on subnational politics and institutions in comparative fashion, while accounting for the inescapable influence of broader federal actors and processes. In constructing this model, I draw extensively from the theories of federalism, regime change and political parties. I argue that the decision to initiate a transition in an authoritarian setting belongs to the federation. However, regional political actors mediate federal processes in their territory and give them a profoundly subnational logic. Regionally specific institutions, interests and histories thus become intangible frontiers between subnational politics and external processes. The constant repetition of this mechanism throughout the transition creates distinct subnational polities. To test my hypothesis, I study three cases in central-northern Mexico: Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi and Zacatecas