North Atlantic climate variability in coupled models and data

© 2008 The Authors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 15 (2008): 13-24, doi:10.5194/npg-15-13-2008We show that the observed zonally averaged jet in the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere exhibits two spatial patterns with broadband variability in the decadal and inter-decadal range; these patterns are consistent with an important role of local, mid-latitude ocean–atmosphere coupling. A key aspect of this behaviour is the fundamentally nonlinear bi-stability of the atmospheric jet's latitudinal position, which enables relatively small sea-surface temperature anomalies associated with ocean processes to affect the large-scale atmospheric winds. The wind anomalies induce, in turn, complex three-dimensional anomalies in the ocean's main thermocline; in particular, they may be responsible for recently reported cooling of the upper ocean. Both observed modes of variability, decadal and inter-decadal, have been found in our intermediate climate models. One mode resembles North Atlantic tri-polar sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns described elsewhere. The other mode, with mono-polar SST pattern, is novel; its key aspects include interaction of oceanic turbulence with the large-scale oceanic flow. To the extent these anomalies exist, the interpretation of observed climate variability in terms of natural and human-induced changes will be affected. Coupled mid-latitude ocean-atmosphere modes do, however, suggest some degree of predictability is possible.This research was supported by NSF grant OCE-02-221066, DOE grants DE-FG-03-01ER63260 and DE-FG02-02ER63413, as well as NASA grant NNG-06-AG66G-1 (MG & SK). PB has also been supported by the Newton Trust research grant, and SK - by the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Research Growth Initiative program 2006-2007