A Study on the Development Strategy of Information Communication Technology Industries in Taiwan: Application of Scenario Analysis Method

本研究屬於一項前瞻性研究，主要目的為探究台灣未來五年(2011~2016)資通訊科技之發展趨勢。為了達成此一目的，本研究首先從資訊硬體、網路通訊、行動裝置產品等三個產業類別了解目前台灣資通訊產業的發展現況。接著，採用史丹佛研究院(Stanford Research Institute，SRI)於 1960 年所發展之情境分析法，預測台灣資通訊科技未來的發展趨勢。情境分析法屬一種科技前瞻的方法，能夠對未來不確定性較高的議題，提供豐富且高複雜性的情境描述，使決策者更容易找出合適的發展策略。在本研究中，彙整 9 位相關領域專家與學者之意見，舉辦兩次專家訪談與兩次專家座談會議，藉此收集與本研究相關之資訊與觀點。最後，提出整合性觀點的三項管理策略，以因應數位匯流產業未來可能的發展趨勢。 本研究架構主要分為五個章節。在第一章中，描述本研究之背景、動機、目的與研究架構與流程。第二章則是針對台灣資通訊科技產業發展現況之簡介，藉由統計資料以及政府相關政策來了解目前台灣資通訊產業的發展現況及其國際地位。在第三章中，將說明本研究使用之方法及其文獻回顧，並比較情境分析法與其他科技預測方法之異同。第四章則為本研究之結果，藉由情境分析法之步驟分別說明本研究各階段之成果，並以最有可能發生的情境為背景，研擬未來ICT產業之經營策略。最後，在第五章中，提出本研究之結論以及後續研究建議。The primary objective of this research is to adopt a scenario analysis to analyze information communication technology (ICT) industries development strategy in the next five years from 2011 to 2016. In order to achieve this objective, this research first reviewed current situation of ICT industries in Taiwan. Then, we investigated the location of main three industries in Taiwan, they including the information hardware industries, the network communications industries and mobile device production. As to the research methodology, we adopted scenario analysis method to explore the development forecasts. As a result, managerial strategies for the ICT industries were drawn from an integrated perspective. In the meantime, two expert interviews and two experts meetings were also held for drawing relevant information and viewpoint for the purpose of this research. The framework of this research is structured as follows. The chapter 1 describes the background, motivation, purpose and framework of this research. Then, the chapter 2 presents the development current situation of ICT industries in Taiwan. In the third chapter, the introduction & literature review of research methodology are shown. The chapter 4 shows the results of this research. Finally, the fifth chapter proposes the conclusions and directions of future research of this research.摘 要 i Abstract ii Contents iii List of Tables v List of Figures vi Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Research Background 1 1.2. Research Motivation 2 1.3. Research Purpose 3 1.4. Research Framework and Process 3 Chapter 2. Current Situation of ICT Industries in Taiwan 5 2.1. The General Situation of ICT Industries in Taiwan 5 2.1.1. Information Hardware Industries in Taiwan 10 2.1.2. Network Communications Industries in Taiwan 12 2.1.3. Mobile Device Production in Taiwan 17 Chapter 3. Research Methodology and Literature Review 20 3.1. Technology Foresight 20 3.1.1. Literature Review of Technology Foresight 20 3.1.2. Comparison between Technology Forecast and Technology Foresight 22 3.1.3. Methods of Technology Forecast 25 3.2. Scenario Analysis 30 3.2.1. Literature Review of Scenario Analysis 30 3.2.2. Steps of Scenario Analysis 33 3.2.3. Composition of Experts Meeting 33 3.2.4. Applicable Timing of the Scenario Analysis Method 36 Chapter 4. Research Results 38 4.1. Overview of Research Procedure 38 4.2. Procedure for Generating Scenario 40 4.2.1. Identification of focal issues or decisions 40 4.2.2. Identification of key decision factors and driving forces 41 4.2.3. Ranking by importance and uncertainty level 43 4.2.4. Selection of uncertainty axes 45 4.2.5. Selection of scenario logic 47 4.3. Description for Scenario 48 4.4. Strategic Implications 51 4.4.1. Risk Diversification 51 4.4.2. Adaptability & Flexibility 52 4.4.3. Strategic Alliance 53 Chapter 5. Conclusions and Future Research 55 5.1. Conclusions 55 5.2. Contributions and Limitations 56 5.3. Future Research 57 References 59 1. Chinese Part 59 2. English Part 59 3. Web Resource Part 62 Appendix 1 63 Appendix 2 66 Appendix 3 6