The Influence of Exchange Rate Volatility on Regional Exports——Based on the Perspective of Heterogenous-firm

笔者使用1999年~2007年的中国工业企业面板数据,运用动态面板模型,在考虑企业生产率的基础上,估算出了人民币实际有效汇率对各区域企业出口值的影响。研究发现:人民币实际有效汇率每升值1%,西部、中部、东部及东北部企业出口值将分别减少1.07%、4.89%、1.14%和3.64%;当生产率增加一个标准差,出口值将分别下降1.02%、4.86%、1.09%和3.61%,即企业生产率越高,出口汇率弹性越小,汇率波动对其冲击越小。在汇率波动时,中部地区的低生产率企业受到的影响最大,而西部地区的高生产率企业受到的影响最小。Using the Chinese manufacturing firm-level panel data from 1999- 2007,and dynamic panel data model,considering the effect of firms' TFP,this paper estimates the effects of RMB real effective exchange rate( REER) on export revenues of Chinese enterprises from different areas.The results show that one percent RMB appreciation of REER reduces export revenues of the eastern,central,western and northeast areas by 4.73% 、3.93% 、3.76 and 3.96% separately.Furthermore,one standard deviation increase in TFP raises these numbers to 4.68% 、3.88% 、3.72 and 3.93%,then the higher the TFP of the firm,the smaller the exchange rate elasticity of exports,and the smaller the effect of exchange rate on exports.So,when the exchange rate changes,the firms located in the east with low productivity are most affected,while the firms located in the west with high productivity are least affected