China's Electricity Demand Forecast under Urbanization Process

中国快速的城市化进程大致将在2020年告一段落,进入中等收入国家。迄今的电力需求研究都忽略了城市化对电力需求的影响。为了取得可靠的电力需求预测,通过引入城市化这个重要因素,本文利用面板数据非线性模型和协整模型从两个侧面对中国电力需求做了对比研究和预测,两个模型所得到的结果基本一致而且数值非常接近,两种模型的结果都表明现阶段电力需求与城市化高度相关。中国城市化进程以及城市化发展阶段所表现出的工业化特征,推动了电力需求快速增长。预计2020年中国人均电力需求将达到5000千瓦时左右。在城市化进程中,中国电力需求必然会呈现出一些发达国家在城市化进程中曾出现过的特征。The rapid urbanization process in China will likely end in 2020 and China will then become a middle income country.Previous studies in related literature on electricity demand gave no consideration on the role of urbanization process.To obtain reliable China's power demand forecast,we for the first time introduce factor of urbanization into the models of electricity demand and use the methods of co-integration analysis and nonlinear regression applying to panel data.The results from both approaches are consistent and in fact,very close.The results of both methods indicate that there exists a significant correlation between the electricity demand and urbanization.We found that the recent rapid growth of electricity demand in China comes mainly from its accelerating process of urbanization and the industrialization that required in a rapid urbanization process.According to our demand forecasting,the electricity consumption in China will still be increasing significantly and the per capita consumption in 2020 will be about 5000 kWh.In its urbanization process,China's electricity demand will have some similar characteristics as those once appeared in their urbanization processes of other developed countries.长江学者科研配套经费和国家社科基金(08BJL050)的支