A Model of the Dynamic Optimal Capital Structure in China

建立财务经济学“五力模型“理论,研究中国上市公司动态最优资本结构理论模型。研究表明中国上市公司动态资本结构的决定性因素就是其财务风险(价值耗散)的优化。具有动态资本结构的中国上市公司享有财务战略竞争优势,体现在这些企业总体上可以在与市场相同的营业总收入增长率的情况下,能够长期同时实现企业净利润、企业规模和企业经营性现金创造能力的更高累计增长水平;并且具有动态资本结构企业的市场价值与其资本结构呈反比例关系,从而解释了为什么许多优秀的企业长期选择较低负债比率的缘故。采用2002-2011年在我国A股市场上交易的998家上市公司为研究样本,以“带息债务与投入资本比“为资本结构形式,实证研究表明中国上市公司目前的动态资本结构区间为24%-40%,其中理想最优资本结构为30%,然而多数中国上市公司没有合理选择目标资本结构从而影响了企业市场价值的提升。A new model of the dynamic optimal capital structure in China based on the"five forces"model of finance has been established.This model indicates that the decisive factor of dynamic capital structure is the optimization of financial risking(value dissipation).Those firms who have the dynamic optimal capital structure embody financial strategy advantaged including more cumulative growth rates of net profit,total asset and NCF in the meantime even they only have the same growth rate of turnover as the market.Moreover,firm value is negative relationship with the capital structure when firm in dynamic optimal capital structure.This can explain why most of the leadership firms choose a lower capital structure long-term.The model of the dynamic optimal capital structure is tested by"debt with interest/investment capital"between 24% and 40%,among them 30%is the best one by the 998 listed companies in Stock Market A in China from 2002 to 2011.This paper also indicates that most of these listed companies cannot choose their optimal capital structure,and which will reduce their market values