China's Way to Become A Trade Power: An Empirical Investigation into International Competitiveness with National Trade Niche Theory

实现贸易强国是中国现阶段的主要任务,具有重要的现实意义和战略意义。本文根据生态学中的生态位理论提出“国家贸易生态位“概念,利用主成分分析法、lEVInS公式和PIAnkA公式得到生态位值、生态位宽度值和生态位重叠值,用于分析中国与美国、英国、德国、日本4个传统贸易强国之间的地位和竞争关系。最后基于生态位扩充理论、分离理论和共生理论等,探析国家贸易生态位变化规律,提出中国实现贸易强国的可能路径。Also one of the major tasks currently facing China, China's objective to become a global trade power at the present stage is of great practical and strategic significance.On the basis of ecological niche theory, this paper puts forth the concept of "national trade niche" and obtains the niche value, the niche breadth value and the niche overlapping value by using Principal Components Analysis, the Levin formula and the Pianka formula.With these values this paper analyzes the trade status and the competitive relationships between China and the 4 traditional strong trade powers(the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan).Finally, combining the niche expansion theory, the niche separation theory and the niche symbiosis theory, this paper explores the rules of change in national trade niche and suggests a possible way for China to become a world trade power.厦门大学国际经济与贸易系教育发展基金; 国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&017); 北京师范大学2012年度文科跨学科沙龙“人格心理的可计算模型与个体经济决策”