2010-2011 Forecast and Analysis of China's Macroeconomy

“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)“课题组于2010年2月6日在北京举行了中国季度宏观经济模型第八次预测发布。课题组利用最新发表的宏观经济季度数据估计模型(CQMM),对2010年和2011年共八个季度的中国宏观经济主要指标数据进行了预测。预测结果表明,2010年中国gdP预计可增长9.13%,复苏迹象明显。但在投资刺激和出口回归正常后,未来数年,我国经济可能难以继续保持之前两位数增长,预期增长9%左右。课题组还模拟了不同货币调整力度对宏观经济的影响,以及居民可分配收入变化对宏观经济运行的影响。依据预测和政策模拟的结果,课题组对2010年我国宏观经济调控提出相关政策建议,即适度控制经济增长速度,调整国民收入支出结构必须多方着手、多方努力。On February 6,2010,Beijing,the eighth quarterly macroeconomic forecast was released by the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM) project team.The project team used the newly released CQMM to forecast China's major macroeconomic indicators for 2010 and 2011,eight quarters in total.The forecast assumes a 9.13% growth of China's GDP in 2010,a significant indication of economic recovery.However,after measures for investment stimulation have been taken and exportation returns to normal,China's GDP growth will be less likely to rise above 10% as it did in the past but remain at about 9% in the next few years.The team has also simulated the impacts on the macroeconomy of different monetary adjustment policies and different disposable income distributions.Based on the forecast and policy simulation results,the team recommends the following policies:that China's GDP growth must be kept at a moderate rate and that the adjustment of the income expenditure structure must be approached by efforts from various sectors and institutions.教育部文科重点研究基地重大研究项目“我国宏观经济运行的微观基础研究”(08JJD790134);教育部文科重点研究基地重大研究项目“‘十一五’期间我国宏观调控方式转变的问题研究”(07JJD630226);教育部文科重点研究基地重大研究项目“经济全球化条件下中国经济增长的动态效率研究”(06JJD790029);教育部文科重点研究基地重大研究项目“中国宏观季度模型与宏观预测”(05JJD790093);国家社科基金重大项目“扩大国内内需的宏观经济政策”(08&ZD034