Analyses of China's Export Sophistication of Manufactured Goods： Based on Comparative Studies at National，Industrial and Product Levels in 2009

陈教育部门 ，厦门大学国际经济与贸易系教授、博士生导师，经济学博士。【中文摘要】随着经济的发展，近年来中国出口结构有了很大的改善，有研究称中国的出口技术复杂度水平已经超过了发达国家,由此产生了所谓的“中国威胁论”。利用36个国家SITC Rev. 3三位分 类码下的166种制成品出口数据，对样本国的产品复杂度、产业复杂度和国家复杂度指标进行测算， 探讨国家复杂度与人均GDP的关系、“国家层面一产业层面”非对称出口技术水平排名的原因，以及髙、低复杂度产品对国家复杂度的贡献程度等问题，可对中国出口复杂度在世界上的相对水平做比较与分析。研究结果表明,从国家层面看，中国制成品的出口复杂度偏高，但若从产业层面看，则居于低 位。从产品层面看，中国髙端产品的贡献与发达国家的差距较大，劳动密集型产品的贡献过大。 【Abstract】With remarkable economic growth in recent years, China's export structure has greatly improved. Some researchers argue that the level of technology sophistication of China's exports has surpassed that of some developed countries ,hence the so-called “China threat” thesis. Based on the export data of 166 kinds of manufactured goods categorized by SITC Rev. 3 at three-digit level of 36 countries, this study calculates the indicators such as product sophistication, industrial sophistication and national sophistication, and explores the relationship between national sophistication and GDP per capita, the reasons for the rank of asymmetric export technological level between national level and industrial level, and the degrees of contributions to national sophistication of high sophistication products and low sophistication products. Comparisons and analyses of export sophistication between China and other countries also conducted. The results show that China's export sophistication is rather high at national level, bul comparatively low al industrial level. Al product level, the contribution of high-end products in China is much less than that in developed countries whereas the contribution of labor-intensive products far surpasses that in developed countries.国家社科基金项目“全球价值链视角下中国产业升级的要素依赖与路径拓展研究”（09BJL045); 教育部人文社科项目“本土市场、要素禀赋与我国外贸增长方式转变研究”（09YJA790120);厦门大学国际经济与贸易系教育发展基金资助项目（201112103