Sources of the Shocks on Taiwan's Macroeconomic Fluctuations： Supply or Demand

王华，厦门大学台湾研究院副教授，福建省统计科学重点实验室（廈门大学）兼职研 究员，经济学博士。【中文摘要】近些年来，台湾经济增长放缓，经济波动幅度却明显提高，显示其经济稳定性正在逐渐丧失。基于总供给一总需求(AS-AD)模型理论，可估计一个包含产出和价格变量的结构向量自 回归模型，并以此分析1991 -2010年期间供给冲击和需求冲击对于台湾宏观经济波动的动态路径 和影响程度。研究结果表明，产出波动对于供求冲击的响应路径符合AS-AD模型的理论预期，并且短期内的产出波动也主要是受到供给冲击的影响;与之相对，价格波动则主要是受到需求冲击 的影响。以1998年第2、第3季度为界，在此时点之后，台湾宏观经济运行的状态更趋不稳定，对 于各类冲击因素更为敏感；同时需求冲击对于产出和价格波动的相对影响都有所提升。 【Abstract】Based on the aggregate supply - aggregate demand (AS-AD) framework, a structural YAR model comprising Taiwan's real output and price variables has been estimated, with which the dynamic paths and influences of supply shocks and demand shocks on Taiwan's macroeconomic fluctuations can be investigated. The estimated outcome indicates that the response paths of real output fluctuations to supply and demand shocks accord with the AD-AS theory expectation, and output variability is mostly attributed to supply shocks either in the long run or in the short run; meanwhile, the fluctuations of price level can be explained with demand shocks predominantly. With two study samples divided in the time point between the second and the third quarter of 1998, it can be discovered that Taiwan's macroeconomic system is losing its stability, and demand shocks have more effects on real output and price variability after the time point.国家社科基金项目“经济依存与经济周期协动性研究：以两岸经济关系为例”（09BJL057