Use of the Metastatic Lymph Node Ratio to Evaluate the Prognosis of Esophageal Cancer Patients with Node Metastasis Following Radical Esophagectomy

Science and Technology Plan of Guangdong Province [2007B031516005]; Youth Research Development Fund of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University [XYY2012005]Objectives: The objective of this study was to investigate the number of metastatic lymph nodes (pN) and the metastatic lymph node ratio (MLR) on the post-surgical prognosis of Chinese patients with esophageal cancer (EC) and lymph node metastasis. Methods: We enrolled 353 patients who received primary curative resection for EC from 1990 to 2003. The association of pN and MLR with 5-year overall survival (OS) was examined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rates, and survival curves were compared with the log-rank test. The Cox model was employed for univariate and multivariate analyses of factors associated with 5-year OS. Results: The median follow-up time was 41 months, and the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 71.2%, 30.4%, and 19.5%, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that age, pN stage, and the MLR were prognostic factors for OS. Patients with MLRs less than 0.15, MLRs of 0.15-0.30, and MLRs greater than 0.30 had 5-year OS rates of 30.1%, 17.8%, and 9.5%, respectively (p < 0.001). Patients classified as pN1, pN2, and pN3 had 5-year OS rates of 23.7%, 11.4%, and 9.9%, respectively (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that a high MLR and advanced age were significant and independent risk factors for poor OS. Patients classified as pN2 had significantly worse OS than those classified as pN1 (p = 0.022), but those classified as pN3 had similar OS as those classified as pN1 (p = 0.166). ROC analysis indicated that MLR (AUC = 0.585, p = 0.016) had better predictive value than pN (AUC = 0.565, p = 0.068). Conclusions: The integrated use of MLR and pN may be suitable for evaluation of OS in Chinese patients with EC and positive nodal metastasis after curative resection